The Anatomy of A Good Bluff – A Poker Indian Group Notion

Thu / August / 2018

 

Believe it or not, making good bluffs in poker is all about the maths! The expected value of your play i.e. EV should determine your bluffing decisions. if you are interested in knowing the matter in details keep an eye on the poker news in India.

To know whether a bluff is a good one, if it is going to be profitable or not you must attempt at accurately estimating how often your opponent player will fold on your bluff. So, evidently, the more knowledge and experience you have the more accurate your guesses are going to be and will make your bluffs worth it.

The trick is to get than mental percentage right, in your head, to do so you must try to analyse how much you expect to make when they do fold or how much you anticipate to lose, when they make a call. Knowing these two amounts will be elemental in understanding if a bluff will be good or bad.

Understanding the profitability of your bluff:

Let us assume a situation where we are on the river stage with a single opponent. Note the cards in this hand does not matter, we will be looking at the maths behind it all. Now the pot and stack sizes are as follows:

  • Pot: INR 100

  • Our stack: INR 200

  • Opponent’s stack: INR 150

Now here we have decided to bluff with an amount of 150/-, which will put our opponent all in. when we choose to make this bluff, we have calculated confidently that the opponent will fold 65 percent of the times.

But does this decision of bluffing make it profitable? Is this a good bluff? Check more about it from various Poker news, that discusses strategies of a player.

Here’s how you can work out the EV (expected value) of this bluff:

Calculations:

When opponent folds:

We will win INR 100, 65 percent of the times. So,

100 x 0.65 = + INR 65

When opponent calls:

We will lose INR 150, 35 percent of the times. So,

150 v 0.35 = – INR 52.50

Thus, the overall Expected Value of the bluff is:

INR 65 – INR 52.50 = + INR 12.50

Hence, after using all the maths to understand the EV of this decision, we can see that bluffing is profitable in this situation. This is how you know if bluffing at a certain point in the game is good or bad as reported from various gaming reviews at poker news in India.

Is bluffing really that important?

The short answer to that question is no, sadly it is not as important as you might think. The most important point to keep in mind when playing poker is to not force yourself to run bluffs only because you feel that you must (for whatever reason that could be)!

The golden rule of thumb to keep in mind is that you should not play a session of poker or start a hand with the sheer intention of bluffing at some point. Only bluff when a good situation arises that calls for it. Feel free to bluff in that case. But do not ever go out of your way to try and bluff all the time. That is not a profitable strategy when playing poker online or offline.

The more experience you gather in the game, you will notice your bluffing abilities will improve and you will be better at spotting profitable opportunities to bluff more and more, as you go along. But for beginners, this is something that you should not feel compelled to do as everyone else seems to be doing it.